Current presidential race polls – completely worthless?

by The Good Reverend on September 18, 2004 · 4 comments

in News,Politics

According to columnist, Jimmy Breslin, we could be looking at a 2004 presidential race polling blunder on par with “Dewey Defeats Truman”.  Why?  Cellphones (< - article).That’s right.  None of the popular polls that make for our daily political punditry fodder are calling any cell phones.  This not only leaves 169 million American phone numbers out of the polling process – it leaves 169 million demographically skewed phones out.

While most people who have cellphones also have a landline, there is a significant percentage of people who don’t.  And it stands to reason that those that don’t have a landline will tend to be younger and/or tech-savvy enough to realize they don’t need a landline at all.  Younger/tech-savvy = voting Kerry.

Older age groups have certainly embraced the convenience of cellphone technology.  However, having grown up with landlines as the only option, it is not of their mindset not to have a landline.  I remember my parents’ reaction when I told them I was losing my landline for good.  They thought it odd – it didn’t make sense not to have one.  They consider the cellphone an extra amenity.

Not so for the younger folks.  I don’t plan on ever getting a landline again.  What’s the point?  I was discussing this with my friend, “LordStrange” (who provided the link to the article) tonight; he informed me that he can think of 4 people off the top of his head that don’t have landlines.  Knowing him, all 4 of those friends are going to vote.  And all 4 are voting for Kerry.

I would imagine that an overwhelming majority of non-landlined cellphone users like myself will be voting for Kerry on election day.  And to all those pollsters stating their daily percentages like they’re cold hard facts, we don’t exist.  We’ll just see about that on election day.

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  • Davion

    Good point, either way nothing happens if ya don’t vote.  Of course Kansas ain’t gonna lean towards the democrats any time soon, but I’ll have to do my part any way.  Hmmm.  Not sure about identity theft being any differnent for cell phone users vs. land lines, but hey I’d have to agree on ID theft, it’s getting worse out there.

  • LordStrange

    GR, you forgot our independant scientastic anaylsis of:

    Yard Signs (Statistologist: LS)

    Bumper Stickers (Probabatician: GR)

    Which both seem to show a landslide for Kerry.

    Not that I should say that shit out loud. I risk making the good guys complacent. No margin of victory should be considered good enough.

  • The Good Reverend

    lol “probabatician”.  That is one of the funniest words I’ve ever heard.

  • Shadow Stalker

    But we must take into consideration that the willing-to-vandalize-my-own-property demographic leans heavily towards people whose property sucks to begin with, i.e. hippies and poor people.  Most of these people will be stoned and/or begging for handouts on election day, which puts us back in the decidedly fifty/fifty region.

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